地震活动性总体参量Rt在东南沿海地震带西段地震预测中的应用     

史水平  李细光  李柳英 《华南地震》2007,27(4):41-47

分析了1974年以来东南沿海地震带西段发生的MS≥4.9级地震前地震活动性总体状态参量Rt的变化特点,同时对Rt值在东南沿海地震带西段的地震预测效能进行了检验评估。结果表明,当Rt>0.82时,表明东南沿海地震带西段地震活动状态比较正常,发生4.9级以上地震的概率较低;反之,当Rt≤0.82时,则表明东南沿海地震带西段地震活动比较活跃,发生4.9级以上地震的概率较大。  相似文献   

亚欧典型热浪过程的大气环流对比分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

孙国武  汤绪  刘新伟  梁萍 《高原气象》2007,26(3):503-510

使用探空站实测资料、国家气象中心500 hPa位势高度和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了中国西北和江南地区以及欧洲、印度发生的典型热浪过程及其形成热浪的大气环流系统。结果表明:西风带高压脊和副热带高压的同位相“南北叠加”(表明高压宽广)和低层高压与上层高压的同位相“上下叠加”(表明高压深厚),以及下沉运动和感热、潜热中心的分布,是中国西北和欧洲热浪形成的大气环流原因;而中国江南和印度的热浪,则与副热带高压的异常强大和夏季风活动有关。  相似文献   

European climatology of severe convective storm environmental parameters: A test for significant tornado events     

Romualdo Romero  Miquel Gay  Charles A. Doswell III 《Atmospheric Research》2007,83(2-4):389-404

  相似文献   

A crustal seismic velocity model for the UK, Ireland and surrounding seas   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Annabel Kelly  Richard W. England  Peter K. H. Maguire 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(3):1172-1184

A regional model of the 3-D variation in seismic P -wave velocity structure in the crust of NW Europe has been compiled from wide-angle reflection/refraction profiles. Along each 2-D profile a velocity–depth function has been digitised at 5 km intervals. These 1-D velocity functions were mapped into three dimensions using ordinary kriging with weights determined to minimise the difference between digitised and interpolated values. An analysis of variograms of the digitised data suggested a radial isotropic weighting scheme was most appropriate. Horizontal dimensions of the model cells are optimised at 40 × 40 km and the vertical dimension at 1 km. The resulting model provides a higher resolution image of the 3-D variation in seismic velocity structure of the UK, Ireland and surrounding areas than existing models. The construction of the model through kriging allows the uncertainty in the velocity structure to be assessed. This uncertainty indicates the high density of data required to confidently interpolate the crustal velocity structure, and shows that for this region the velocity is poorly constrained for large areas away from the input data.  相似文献   

Mapping landslide susceptibility from small datasets: A case study in the Pays de Herve (E Belgium)   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

Alain Demoulin  Chang-Jo F. Chung 《Geomorphology》2007,89(3-4):391-404

A landslide susceptibility map is proposed for the Pays de Herve (E Belgium), where large landslides affect Cretaceous clay outcrop areas. Based on a Bayesian approach, this GIS-supported probabilistic map identifies the areas most susceptible to deep landslides. The database is comprised of the source areas of ten pre-existing landslides (i.e. a sample of 154 grid cells) and of six environmental data layers, namely lithology, proximity to active faults, slope angle and aspect, elevation and distance to the nearest valley-floor. A 30-m-resolution DEM from the Belgian National Geographical Institute is used for the analysis. Owing to the small size of the sample, a special cross-validation procedure of the susceptibility map is performed, which uses in an iterative way each of the landslides to test the predictive power of the map derived from the other landslides. Four different sets of variables are used to produce four susceptibility maps, whose prediction curves are compared. While the prediction rates associated with the models not involving the “proximity to active fault” criterion are comparable to those of the models considering this variable, strong weaknesses inherent in the fault data on which the latter rely suggest that the final susceptibility map should be based on a model that excludes any reference to fault. This highlights the difference between a triggering factor and determining factors, and in the same time broadens the scope of the produced map. A single reactivated slide is also used to test the possibility of predicting future reactivation of existing landslides in the area. Finally, the need for geomorphological control over the mathematical treatment is underlined in order to obtain realistic prediction maps.  相似文献   

SEDIMENT BUDGETS AND RATES OF SEDIMENT TRANSFER ACROSS COLD ENVIRONMENTS IN EUROPE: A COMMENTARY     

JEFF WARBURTON 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2007,89(1):95-101

The sediment mass balance equation is the fundamental concept which underpins most sediment budget studies in cold climate environments. In these environments the interchange between water and ice plays a predominant geomorphological role. Such environments show a large variety of geomorphic processes which are conditioned by both contemporary environmental conditions but also the legacy of past events. In the northern Europe/Arctic fringe these cold regions are distributed in a fragmented fashion and are likely to be very sensitive to climate change scenarios. The significance of such changes for sediment transfer can only be established if we have good contemporary process understanding, the necessary tools to carefully monitor and model such changes, and can apply such methods at appropriate scales which integrate both sediment sources and sinks.  相似文献   

ISLAND SOJOURNS     

JOHN R. GILLIS 《Geographical review》2007,97(2):274-287

ABSTRACT. Islands have long held a central place in Western cultures' mythical geographies. They have been associated for centuries with heroic journeys and holy quests, imagined realms of magical transformations. Islands have also been sites of significant rites of passage, and they continue to perform this function in the modern secular world. Today, popular islomania is expressed in the frequency of seasonal sojourning on European and American archipelagos. No longer destinations of permanent residence, islands now provide access to a sense of temporal and spatial rootedness that is no longer available on mainlands. They loom large on the mental maps even of those who rarely, if ever, visit them.  相似文献   

东南沿海地区的断裂与地震   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

卢帮华  黄日恒 《华南地震》2006,26(3):109-118

中国东部,相对来说东南沿海地区的地震活动较为频繁,断裂构造也十分发育。地震活动与断裂构造有非常密切的关系,震中与断裂构造的空间分布也关系密切。通过对东南沿海大量震例的调查和研究,分析三组断裂与地震的关系,得出东南沿海地区东西向、北东向和北西向的三组断裂构造,分别构成了区内的衰减构造、控震构造和发震构造,形成了东南沿海陆缘构造活动带。  相似文献   

我国东南象限冬、春季雨带的相关分析     

汤懋苍  张拥军  李栋梁 《高原气象》2006,25(2):352-355

通过对我国东南象限冬、春季雨带的相关分析,发现当冬、春季之间地气形势稳定时,约有68%的春雨带位于冬雨带南方50~300 km的范围内,此统计结果可作为预报春雨的指标;当冬季地气形势出现“双跳型”时,冬、春季之间的雨带可相距500 km以上,此时冬、春季的地震时空变化有可能作为春雨位置的预报指标。  相似文献   

桂东南荔枝生长营养元素农业地球化学研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

叶荣  李蔚萍 《地学前缘》2006,13(1):119-127

桂东南是中国重要的荔枝产区,以梧州地区为例,重点对沙头和古凤两处荔枝种植园进行了生态地球化学调查,采集了荔枝园施肥圈内、外土壤,出露的代表性基岩,以及荔枝叶、青果和熟果样品,实测了大量和微量矿质元素、稀土元素,以及土壤营养元素有效态的含量。通过计算荔枝对土壤营养元素的吸收率及荔枝生长与结果期对营养元素的需求,查明本区荔枝生长的特征营养元素为Ca、K、Mg、Mn、P、Zn、Cu、B、Fe和REE。荔枝结果期的特需营养元素为P、Mg、Mo、Cu、Zn、Ko荔枝结果早和晚期特需元素分别为Ca、Si、B和Cu、Fe、K。在岩石-土壤-荔枝株生态循环系统中,本区营养元素在土壤中保持一定的积累,提供荔枝生长的需求,因此为荔枝宜种区;但全区土壤B缺乏,Zn、Mo局部不足。Ca、K、Zn在两区岩石土壤中分布不同,可能是造成沙头荔枝比古凤荔枝迟熟的主要农业地球化学因素。研究区有害元素Pb、Cd在土壤中积累是值得关注的土壤环境问题。  相似文献